Board Thread:Fun and Games/@comment-30510141-20161220114724/@comment-25856498-20161223164315

Assuming you have a 50% win rate, there is a 0.647% chance of you getting 12 wins in a challenge.

Increase that win rate to 80% and that chance rises to about 44.8%.

Further increase the win rate to 90% and you have a 84.2% chance of getting 12 wins.